Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Delta Associates Washington Area Housing Outlook: 1Q 2012

Research firm Delta Associates has released its Washington Area Housing Outlook for 1st quarter 2012.  Following a slow 4th quarter 2011, momentum has returned to the Washington area housing market.  Read the full report here.

District of Columbia, Alexandria, Arlington

In Core areas of DC, Alexandria, and Arlington home prices have increased an average of 6.3% over 1st quarter 2011.  Average days-on-market have decreased to 78 from an average of 83 last year.

  • District: prices are up 8.3% over 1st quarter 2011
  • Alexandria: average price was 0.5% lower
  • Arlington: prices rose 4.6% from one year ago

Inner Ring Suburbs
Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince Georges Counties

Home prices rose an average of 1.8% in the Inner Ring suburbs of Fairfax, Montgomery, and Prince Georges counties combined.  Average time on market rose to 87 days, up from 84 days last year.

  • Fairfax: home prices are 4.8% higher than 1st quarter 2011
  • Montgomery: prices are 2.7% lower
  • Prince Georges: home prices are 3.3% lower than a year ago
Washington Area
District, Alexandria, Arlington
Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince Georges Counties
Loudoun, Prince William, Frederick Counties

Prices: In several jurisdictions home prices are nearing levels seen during the peak of the bubble.  Delta reports an average price increase of 3.6% over 1st quarter 2011 for the entire Washington area.  The average selling price is 97.3% of list price.  As sellers have become more realistic about pricing, buyers have become more aggressive negotiating a deal.  

Inventory: Housing inventory in the Washington area is at its lowest point since 4th quarter 2005, the peak of the last housing cycle. Generally, a market with six-months of inventory is considered evenly balanced between buyers and sellers. The Washington area has an average of 3.2 months of for-sale inventory at the end of 1st quarter 2012, down from 4.2 months one year ago.  The local housing market tends to favor sellers and prices tend to rise when the ratio of inventory to sales is below six months.

Economy: The Washington area economy continues to remain stable.  Local GRP is expected to grow 2.7% during 2012, compared to GDP growth of 2.5% nationwide.  With the lowest unemployment rate among large metros (5.8%) and the fourth largest job market in the country, the DC area continues to outperform other housing markets nationwide.

*     *     *

Delta Associates is a firm of experienced professionals offering research, advisory, and valuation services to the real estate industry for over 30 years.  The firm's Housing Outlook draws from a wide variety of sources including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller, and the U.S. Census.

No comments:

Post a Comment